Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
