🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still